Capesize Market at USD 44,672: Loss-Making Voyages Amid Surging Rates　ケープ市況44,672ドル、急騰の陰で赤字運航も

Shortage of Controlled Tonnage and FFA Losses Weighing Heavily

支配船不足とFFA損失が重荷

The time charter rates for Capesize bulk carriers, the main vessels used for iron ore transportation, are soaring. The five-route average spot rate on the London market on the 3rd rose by USD 6,245 from the previous day to reach USD 44,672 per day, the highest level since 2021.

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The background to this trend is that China is significantly shifting its iron ore import sources from traditional Australian supply to the Simandou mine in Guinea, West Africa, and Brazilian iron ore. China continues to maintain its suspension of new imports of low-grade iron ore from Australia’s BHP, and the expansion of long-haul transportation has sharply increased tonne-mile demand, tightening the Capesize market.

Meanwhile, despite the favourable market conditions, structural issues are emerging that prevent shipping operators from improving their financial results. Loss-making operations are appearing during the surge, driven by negative margins caused by the shortage of controlled vessels and by widening valuation losses in FFAs (Forward Freight Agreements).

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ケープ市況44,672ドル、急騰の陰で赤字運航も

支配船不足とFFA損失が重荷

　鉄鉱石輸送の主力であるケープサイズバルカーの用船料が急騰している。3日付ロンドン市場の5航路平均スポット用船料は、前日比6,245ドル高の1日当たり44,672ドルに達し、2021年以来の水準に達した。

この記事のポイント

→背景には、中国が従来の豪州産鉄鉱石から西アフリカ・ギニアのシマンドゥ鉱山およびブラジル産鉄鉱石へ輸入先を大幅に切り替えている動きがある。中国は豪州BHPの低品位鉄鉱石の新規輸入停止措置を継続し、長距離輸送の拡大によりトンマイル需要が急増、ケープサイズ市況は供給ひっ迫感を強めた。

→一方で、市況好調にもかかわらず海運オペレーターの業績は改善しない構造的課題が浮かび上がっている。支配船不足に伴う逆ザヤやFFA（運賃先物）の評価損が拡大し、急騰局面で「赤字運航」が発生している。

“You can read the rest of the article in both English and Japanese.”（続きは英語と日本語で書かれた本文でお読みください）