Why VLCCs Still Face a Tonnage Shortage Despite the Newbuilding Boom　VLCC、新造船の発注急増でも船腹不足の理由とは

How the “Effective Fleet” Reveals the True Supply-Demand Balance

「実効船腹」が映す需給の実像

　According to market data, the global VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) fleet currently numbers around 900 vessels. At the same time, the number of VLCCs aged 20 years or more has grown to around 130, accounting for approximately 15% of the existing fleet.

　Market participants argue that even as newbuildings are delivered, part of the additional capacity merely offsets the declining operational performance of ageing vessels. As a result, effective transport capacity is not increasing at the same pace as the nominal fleet.

■The full article covers the following topics (approximately 2,000 words)

→ How the ageing of the global VLCC fleet of around 900 vessels is reshaping market fundamentals, and the growing impact of vessels aged 20 years or more

→ A clear explanation of why tonnage shortages persist despite an orderbook equivalent to around 30% of the existing fleet, viewed through the concept of the “effective fleet”

→ The differences between BIMCO’s and Tankers International’s data, and what each set of figures actually represents

→ An analysis of why VLCC deliveries fell to a record low of just one vessel in 2024, and what that means for the market

→ An examination of the difference between the nominal fleet and the effective fleet, and what it implies for the future direction of the VLCC charter market

(Read the remainder of the article in the paid edition, published in both English and Japanese. The Japanese version follows the English article.)

VLCC、新造船の発注急増でも船腹不足の理由とは

「実効船腹」が映す需給の実像

　市場データによると、世界で運航するVLCC（超大型原油タンカー）は約900隻とみられる。一方、船齢20年以上の老朽VLCCは約130隻まで増え、現存船隊の約15％を占めるまでになった。

　新造船が引き渡されても、その一部は老朽船の能力低下を補う役割に充てられるため、名目上の船腹ほど輸送能力は増えない、という見方がタンカーの市場関係者間に出ている。

■記事本文では以下の内容を読むことができます（記事全文約2,000文字）

→ 世界約900隻のVLCC船隊で進む高齢化の実態と、船齢20年以上の船舶が市場に与える影響

→ 「受注残30％」でも船腹不足が続く理由を、「実効船腹」という視点から分かりやすく解説

→ BIMCOとTankers Internationalのデータの違いと、それぞれの数字が意味するものを整理

→ 2024年のVLCC引き渡しが過去最低の1隻となった背景と、市場への影響を分析

→ 名目上の船腹と実際に市場で機能する船腹の違いから、今後のVLCC用船市場の見方を考察

（続きは英語と日本語で書かれた有料版の本文でお読みください。日本語の記事は英文記事に続いて掲載されています）