Hormuz Disruption Seen Extending Into Second Half of Year　ホルムズ海峡混乱、年後半入りまで長期化との見方も

Goldman survey highlights prolonged uncertainty, while shipping executives warn normalisation may take three months

ゴールドマン調査、海運現場では「正常化に３カ月」観測も

Wall Street is increasingly viewing the disruption to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as likely to persist into the second half of the year.

According to several US media reports, a “Marquee MarketView” survey conducted by Goldman Sachs Group between May 4 and 6 among 837 institutional investor clients showed that more than half of respondents expect logistics flows through the Strait of Hormuz to remain disrupted beyond the end of June.

Among them, 43 per cent said they do not expect shipping conditions to return to normal until after July.

■The full article includes the following points (approximately 3,000 Japanese characters)

→Market expectations emerging from the Goldman Sachs survey that “normalisation will not occur even after July”

→The reality highlighted by shipping practitioners that “the reopening of routes does not mean logistics have returned to normal”

→Concerns over a global vessel allocation disruption as repair yards and inspections become congested with idle ships

→What the impact could be on shipping markets from an estimated 800 vessels waiting for deployment

→The details behind the “post-end-June scenarios” now being examined by Japanese shipping companies

Photo of US Navy

(The full article can be read in both English and Japanese. The Japanese article appears after the English version.)

ホルムズ海峡混乱、年後半入りまで長期化との見方も

ゴールドマン調査、海運現場では「正常化に３カ月」観測も

　米ウォール街で、ホルムズ海峡を通過する海上輸送の混乱が年後半入りまで長期化するとの見方が強まっている。複数の米メディアによると、米投資金融大手Goldman Sachs Groupが5月4日から6日にかけて837の機関投資家顧客を対象に実施した「Marquee MarketView」調査では、回答者の過半数が、ホルムズ海峡を通過する物流が6月末を過ぎても混乱状態にあると予想した。このうち43％は、輸送が7月を過ぎても正常化しないとの見通しを示した。

■記事本文では以下の内容を読むことができます（記事全文約3,000文字）

→Goldman Sachs調査で浮上した「７月後も正常化せず」との市場観測

→海運実務者が指摘する「航路再開＝物流正常化ではない」現実

→停船船舶の修繕・検査集中で懸念される世界的な配船混乱

→800隻規模ともされる待機船が海運市況へ与える影響とは

→→日本海運各社が前提とする「６月末以降シナリオ」への対応

（続きは英語と日本語で書かれた本文でお読みください。日本語の記事は英文記事に続いて掲載されています）