Series No. 2: Taiwan Contingency – How Would Japanese Shipping Respond? 連載②　台湾有事、その時、日本海運はどう動くのか

The day the Taiwan Strait becomes an “Asian chokepoint”

More than 20% of global seaborne trade at stake as Japan- and South Korea-bound ships face major diversions

台湾海峡が「アジアのチョークポイント」になる日

世界海上貿易の2割超、日本・韓国向け船舶に迫る大迂回

　According to estimates by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), about $2.45tn worth of goods passed through the Taiwan Strait in 2022. This was equivalent to more than 20% of global seaborne trade by value. If navigation became difficult in a contingency, could the Taiwan Strait become a major “shipping chokepoint” alongside the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea?

■The full article covers the following points (approximately 2,000 Japanese characters)

→ Taiwan Strait – what happens if an artery carrying more than 20% of global seaborne trade is disrupted?

→ Japan- and South Korea-bound ships could face diversions of up to 1,000 miles

→ Could longer voyages create a shortage of vessel capacity and push up freight rates?

→ LNG and crude oil shipments could also be affected, with alternative routes exposed to contingency risks

→ Preparing for the next crisis after the Red Sea – how Japanese shipping companies can respond to a Taiwan contingency

(Please continue reading the full subscriber-only article, available in both English and Japanese. The Japanese version follows the English article.)

Photo courtesy of iStock, CSIS

連載②　台湾有事、その時、日本海運はどう動くのか

台湾海峡が「アジアのチョークポイント」になる日

世界海上貿易の2割超、日本・韓国向け船舶に迫る大迂回

米戦略国際問題研究所（CSIS）の推計では、2022年に台湾海峡を通過した貨物は金額ベースで約2兆4,500億ドル。世界の海上貿易額の2割超に相当する。有事で航行が困難になれば、台湾海峡はホルムズ海峡や紅海と並ぶ巨大な「海運チョークポイント」になり得るのだろうか。

■記事本文では以下の内容を読むことができます（記事全文約2,000文字）

→ 台湾海峡、世界海上貿易「2割超」の動脈が止まる時

→ 日本・韓国向け船舶、最大1,000マイルの大迂回も

→ 航海長期化で船腹不足、運賃上昇は起きるのか

→ LNG・原油輸送にも波及、代替航路にも有事リスク

→ 紅海危機の次に備える、日本船社の台湾有事対応

（続きは英語と日本語で書かれた有料版の本文でお読みください。日本語の記事は英文記事に続いて掲載されています）